South African Supply and Demand Estimates November 2017

Supply – The total supply of white maize is projected at 10 007 036 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes opening stock (at 1 May 2017) of 597 837 tons, and local commercial deliveries of 9 642 750 tons. No whole white maize imports for South Africa estimated, minus 253 551 tons’ early deliveries with a surplus of 20 000 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for white maize is projected at 7 165 000 tons. The total local demand is projected at 6 340 000 tons. This includes 4 400 000 tons processed for human consumption, 1 850 000 tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, 15 000 tons for gristing, 35 000 tons withdrawn by producers, 35 000 tons released to end-consumers and a balancing figure of 5 000 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of 60 000 tons of processed products and 765 000 tons of white whole maize is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season. (Please note: When utilizing as 45 days’ stock proxy, there is potential for 2 840 000 tons of white whole maize available for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season). Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2018 is estimated at 2 842 036 tons. At an average processed quantity of 522 083 tons per month, this represents available stock for 5.4 months or 166 days.

Yellow Maize (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of yellow maize is projected at 7 015 409 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes opening stock (at 1 May 2017) of 496 801 tons, and local commercial deliveries of 6 451 250 tons. No yellow maize imports for South Africa estimated, early deliveries of 49 358 tons with a surplus of 18 000 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for yellow maize is projected at 5 473 000 tons. The total local demand is projected at 4 043 000 tons. This includes 560 000 tons processed for human consumption, 3 200 000 tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, 13 000 tons for gristing, 75 000 tons withdrawn by producers, 180 000 tons released to end-consumers and a balancing figure of 15 000 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of 130 000 tons of processed products and 1 300 000 tons of yellow whole maize is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season. (Please note: When utilizing as 45 days’ stock proxy, there is potential for 2 380 000 tons of yellow whole maize available for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season).

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2018 is estimated at 1 542 409 tons. At an average processed quantity of 314 417 tons per month, this represents available stock for 4.9 months or 149 days.

Total Maize (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of maize is projected at 17 022 445 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes opening stock (at 1 May 2017) of 1 094 638 tons, and local commercial deliveries of 16 094 000 tons. No whole maize imports for South Africa are expected, early deliveries of minus 204 193 tons with a surplus of 38 000 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for maize is projected at 12 638 000 tons. The total local demand is projected at 10 383 000 tons. This includes 4 960 000 tons processed for human consumption, 5 050 000 tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, 28 000 tons for gristing, 110 000 tons withdrawn by producers, 215 000 tons released to end-consumers and a balancing figure of 20 000 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of 190 000 tons of processed products and 2 065 000 tons of total whole maize is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season. (Please note: When utilizing as 45 days’ stock proxy, there is potential for 5 220 000 tons of total whole maize available for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season).

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2018 is estimated at 4 384 445 tons. At an average processed quantity of 836 500 tons per month, this represents available stock for 5.2 months or 159 days.

Sweet Sorghum (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of sweet sorghum is projected at 186 171 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 March 2017) of 31 836 tons, local commercial deliveries of 94 335 tons, 60 000 tons’ sweet sorghum imports for South Africa and no sweet sorghum surplus.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for sweet sorghum is projected at 154 900 tons. This includes 7 000 tons for indoor malting, 28 000 tons for floor malting, 95 000 tons for meal, rice and grits, 7 600 tons for feed, 1 300 tons withdrawn by producers, 1 000 tons released to end consumers, a balancing figure of 1 000 tons (net receipts and net dispatches) and a deficit of 4 000 tons. A projected export quantity of 10 000 tons of sweet sorghum is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 28 February 2018 is estimated at 31 271 tons. At an average processed quantity of 11 467 tons per month, this represents available stock for 2.7 months or 83 days.

Bitter Sorghum (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of bitter sorghum is projected 57 902 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 March 2017) of 3 402 tons, local commercial deliveries of 54 500 tons, no bitter sorghum imports for South Africa with no surplus.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for bitter sorghum is projected at 32 500 tons. This includes 6 000 tons for indoor malting, 21 000 tons for floor malting, 800 tons for meal, rice and grits, 850 tons for feed, 1 200 tons withdrawn by producers, 200 tons released to end consumers, a balancing figure of 200 tons (net receipts and net dispatches) and a deficit of 250 tons. A projected export quantity of 2 000 tons of bitter sorghum is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 28 February 2018 is estimated at 25 402 tons. At an average processed quantity of 2 388 tons per month, this represents available stock for 10.6 months or 324 days.

Total Sorghum (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of sorghum is projected at 244 073 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 March 2017) of 35 238 tons, local commercial deliveries of 148 835 tons, 60 000 tons’ sorghum imports for South Africa and no sorghum surplus.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for sorghum is projected at 187 400 tons. This includes 13 000 tons for indoor malting, 49 000 tons for floor malting, 95 800 tons for meal, rice and grits, 8 450 tons for feed, 2 500 tons withdrawn by producers, 1 200 tons released to end consumers, a balancing figure of 1 200 tons (net receipts and net dispatches) and a deficit of 4 250 tons. A projected export quantity of 12 000 tons of sorghum are available for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 28 February 2018 is estimated at 56 673 tons. At an average processed quantity of 13 854 tons per month, this represents available stock for 4.1 months or 124 days.

Wheat (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of wheat is projected at 3 697 674 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 October 2017) of 341 424 tons, local commercial deliveries of 1 549 250 tons, whole wheat imports for South Africa of 1 800 000 tons and a surplus of 7 000 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for wheat is projected at 3 208 700 tons. This includes 3 100 000 tons processed for human consumption, 2 000 tons processed for animal consumption, 1 500 tons withdrawn by producers, 1 200 tons released to end consumers, 22 000 tons projected seed for planting and a balancing figure of 10 000 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of 12 000 tons of processed products and 60 000 tons of whole wheat is estimated for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 30 September 2018 is estimated at 488 974 tons. At an average processed quantity of 258 500 tons per month, this represents available stock for 1.9 months or 58 days.

Sunflower Seed (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of sunflower seed is projected at 1 047 731 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 March 2017) of 163 086 tons, local commercial deliveries of 874 595 tons, sunflower seed imports of 550 tons for South Africa and a surplus of 9 500 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for sunflower seed is projected at 818 700 tons. This includes 1 700 tons processed for human consumption, 7 000 tons processed for animal consumption, 800 000 tons for crush for oil and oil cake, 700 tons withdrawn by producers, 3 500 tons released to end consumers, 3 000 tons seed for planting purposes and a balancing figure of 2 500 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A quantity of 300 tons for exports is projected for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 28 February 2018 is estimated at 229 031 tons. At an average processed quantity of 67 392 tons per month, this represents available stock for 3.4 months or 103 days.

Soybeans (2017/18 Season)

Supply – The total supply of soybeans is projected at 1 400 162 tons for the 2017/18 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 March 2017) of 84 792 tons, local commercial deliveries of 1 284 370 tons, soybeans import of 28 000 tons for South Africa and a surplus of 3 000 tons.

Demand – The total demand (local and exports) for soybeans is projected at 1 091 006 tons. This includes 28 000 tons processed for human consumption, 140 000 tons processed for animal (full fat) consumption, 880 000 tons for crush for oil and oil cake, 1 500 tons withdrawn by producers, 1 500 tons released to end consumers, 8 506 tons seed for planting, and a balancing figure of 1 500 tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A quantity of 30 000 tons soybeans is projected for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Stock levels – The projected closing stock level at 28 February 2018 is estimated at 309 156 tons. At an average processed quantity of 87 333 tons per month, this represents available stock for 3.5 months or 108 days. (Please note: When utilizing as 45 days’ stock proxy, there is potential for 210 000 tons of soybeans available for exports for the 2017/18 marketing season).

NOTE: The December 2017 SASDE Report will be released on the 11th of January 2018.

Source: FarmingPortal